Is Undocumented Immigration Really Net Negative?

Net immigration is essentially the difference between people migrating into a country and people leaving it. If arrivals exceed departures, net immigration is positive. If departures exceed arrivals, it is negative.

The Census Bureau estimates that overall U.S. net international migration remains positive. It peaked at approximately 2.7 million in 2024, declined to about 1.3 million in 2025, and is projected to fall to approximately 321,000 in 2026 if current trends continue.

So if the claim is simply that total U.S. immigration is already net negative, the government data do not support it.

The claim becomes more complicated when looking specifically at people without permanent legal immigration status.

The Congressional Budget Office divides immigration into three broad categories: LPR+, which includes lawful permanent residents and certain people eligible for permanent residence; INA nonimmigrants, such as students and temporary workers; and a third group called 'other foreign nationals,' or OFNs.

CBO estimates that net immigration of other foreign nationals surged after 2020 before falling sharply after 2023. The category averaged about -130,000 per year from 2010 through 2019, rose to approximately 830,000 in 2021, 2.0 million in 2022, 2.4 million in 2023 and 1.3 million in 2024. In 2025, it turned negative: CBO estimates that 360,000 more people in this category left the country than arrived. CBO projects another negative year in 2026, at approximately -330,000.

The historical context matters. Negative net immigration for this category is not unprecedented: CBO estimates it was negative on average during the decade before the pandemic. What stands out is the size and speed of the shift from the unusually high levels recorded between 2021 and 2024 back into negative territory.

Not exactly. This is the most important qualification when using the CBO number.

CBO says its other-foreign-national category includes people who entered the United States illegally. But it also includes people allowed to enter through humanitarian parole who may be awaiting immigration-court proceedings and other people who do not fit CBO's LPR+ or INA nonimmigrant categories.

That makes OFN useful for understanding migration among people without permanent legal status, but it is not synonymous with 'undocumented immigrant.'

DHS uses a separate definition when estimating the resident unauthorized immigrant population. Its estimates measure how many unauthorized immigrants are believed to be living in the United States at a particular time. CBO's OFN figure instead measures annual net immigration for a broader immigration category. Those statistics answer different questions.

Other federal statistics support the conclusion that immigration flows fell dramatically, even though they measure different things.

Census estimates that total net international migration fell from approximately 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025. Census says the decline resulted from both lower immigration and higher emigration. Its 2026 projection of approximately 321,000 would represent another substantial decline if current trends continue.

Border data show an even sharper change in unauthorized crossings. Border Patrol recorded 8,725 southwest-border encounters between ports of entry in May 2025, compared with 117,905 in May 2024, a 93 percent decline.

Border encounters, Census net migration and CBO's OFN estimates are not interchangeable statistics. But all three show a substantial decline in immigration flows from their recent highs.

The most accurate answer depends on what someone means by the phrase.

'Overall U.S. immigration is net negative' is incorrect based on current Census and CBO estimates. Total net immigration remains positive.

'Undocumented immigration is net negative' is closer to a real government statistic, but still imprecise. CBO estimates that its broader other-foreign-national category had negative net immigration of approximately 360,000 in 2025.

The precise statement is therefore: CBO estimates that net immigration among 'other foreign nationals,' a category containing many people without permanent legal status, turned negative in 2025.