Universal Health Insurance Fiscal Sensitivity Scenarios

Illustrative Leiflets scenarios testing how employer and household contribution assumptions affect the additional federal financing required under a $3.95 trillion mature core-benefit planning target.

Last updated: September 22, 2026#universal-healthcare#healthcare#fiscal-model#health-financing#employer-contributions#household-contributions#sensitivity-analysis

Lower employer / lower household

Public-Financing Bridge$1.738T

Employer Contribution$550B

Household Contribution$250B

Additional Federal Financing$1.412T

Lower employer / central household

Public-Financing Bridge$1.738T

Employer Contribution$550B

Household Contribution$300B

Additional Federal Financing$1.362T

Lower employer / higher household

Public-Financing Bridge$1.738T

Employer Contribution$550B

Household Contribution$350B

Additional Federal Financing$1.312T

Central employer / lower household

Public-Financing Bridge$1.738T

Employer Contribution$650B

Household Contribution$250B

Additional Federal Financing$1.312T

Central case

Public-Financing Bridge$1.738T

Employer Contribution$650B

Household Contribution$300B

Additional Federal Financing$1.262T

Central employer / higher household

Public-Financing Bridge$1.738T

Employer Contribution$650B

Household Contribution$350B

Additional Federal Financing$1.212T

Higher employer / lower household

Public-Financing Bridge$1.738T

Employer Contribution$750B

Household Contribution$250B

Additional Federal Financing$1.212T

Higher employer / central household

Public-Financing Bridge$1.738T

Employer Contribution$750B

Household Contribution$300B

Additional Federal Financing$1.162T

Higher employer / higher household

Public-Financing Bridge$1.738T

Employer Contribution$750B

Household Contribution$350B

Additional Federal Financing$1.112T

Scenario	Public-Financing Bridge	Employer Contribution	Household Contribution	Additional Federal Financing
Lower employer / lower household	$1.738T	$550B	$250B	$1.412T
Lower employer / central household	$1.738T	$550B	$300B	$1.362T
Lower employer / higher household	$1.738T	$550B	$350B	$1.312T
Central employer / lower household	$1.738T	$650B	$250B	$1.312T
Central case	$1.738T	$650B	$300B	$1.262T
Central employer / higher household	$1.738T	$650B	$350B	$1.212T
Higher employer / lower household	$1.738T	$750B	$250B	$1.212T
Higher employer / central household	$1.738T	$750B	$300B	$1.162T
Higher employer / higher household	$1.738T	$750B	$350B	$1.112T

Notes

All scenarios are Leiflets calculations rather than CBO, JCT or CMS scores. Arithmetic is based on a $3.950 trillion core-benefit planning target minus a $1.738 trillion modeled existing public-financing bridge, employer contributions and household contributions. The employer and household amounts are not yet calibrated against administrative tax data. The public-financing bridge is a modeling proxy and should not be interpreted as $1.738 trillion of automatically transferable federal cash.