Projected U.S. physician shortage, 2038
FTE / Positions141,160
ClassificationHRSA projection
Healthcare Workforce Capacity and Leiflets Expansion Scenario
Comparison of selected federal workforce shortage projections with the illustrative workforce expansion used in the Leiflets universal healthcare model.
Last updated: September 22, 2026#universal-healthcare#healthcare#workforce#physicians#nurses#mental-health#primary-care#capacity
Projected primary-care physician shortage, 2038
FTE / Positions70,610
ClassificationHRSA projection
Projected registered-nurse shortage, 2038
FTE / Positions108,960
ClassificationHRSA projection
Physicians added under Leiflets scenario
FTE / Positions35,000
ClassificationLeiflets model assumption
Registered nurses added
FTE / Positions100,000
ClassificationLeiflets model assumption
Nurse practitioners added
FTE / Positions30,000
ClassificationLeiflets model assumption
Physician assistants added
FTE / Positions20,000
ClassificationLeiflets model assumption
Mental-health counselors added
FTE / Positions80,000
ClassificationLeiflets model assumption
Medical assistants added
FTE / Positions75,000
ClassificationLeiflets model assumption
Community health workers added
FTE / Positions40,000
ClassificationLeiflets model assumption
Healthcare social workers added
FTE / Positions20,000
ClassificationLeiflets model assumption
Health-information and interoperability workers added
FTE / Positions20,000
ClassificationLeiflets model assumption
Total Leiflets ten-year workforce expansion
FTE / Positions420,000
ClassificationLeiflets model assumption
| Workforce Measure | FTE / Positions | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| Projected U.S. physician shortage, 2038 | 141,160 | HRSA projection |
| Projected primary-care physician shortage, 2038 | 70,610 | HRSA projection |
| Projected registered-nurse shortage, 2038 | 108,960 | HRSA projection |
| Physicians added under Leiflets scenario | 35,000 | Leiflets model assumption |
| Registered nurses added | 100,000 | Leiflets model assumption |
| Nurse practitioners added | 30,000 | Leiflets model assumption |
| Physician assistants added | 20,000 | Leiflets model assumption |
| Mental-health counselors added | 80,000 | Leiflets model assumption |
| Medical assistants added | 75,000 | Leiflets model assumption |
| Community health workers added | 40,000 | Leiflets model assumption |
| Healthcare social workers added | 20,000 | Leiflets model assumption |
| Health-information and interoperability workers added | 20,000 | Leiflets model assumption |
| Total Leiflets ten-year workforce expansion | 420,000 | Leiflets model assumption |
Notes
The 420,000-FTE expansion is a policy-model target, not a federal estimate of the total national healthcare-worker shortage. Federal physician and nursing projections measure specific occupations and should not be added together as if they represent a comprehensive national shortage estimate. Workforce distribution by geography and specialty is also important; additional national headcount alone does not guarantee local access.
Sources
[524]Health Resources and Services Administration
Physician Workforce: Projections, 2023-2038
Primarygovernment report
View source →[541]Health Resources and Services Administration
Nurse Workforce Projections, 2023-2038
Primarygovernment report
View source →[545]Health Resources and Services Administration
State of the U.S. Health Care Workforce, 2025
Primarygovernment report
View source →[546]Health Resources and Services Administration
State of the Primary Care Workforce, 2025
Primarygovernment report
View source →[547]Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
Direct Graduate Medical Education (DGME): Distribution of Additional Residency Positions
Primarygovernment
View source →